气候变化对新疆意大利蝗潜在分布的影响

工作报告（IPCC AR5）采用的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种气候情景在2021-2040年（2030s）、2041-2060年（2050s）和2061-2080年（2070s）的意大利蝗新疆潜在适生区分布范围。结果表明：在BCC_CSM1.1的各情景下，意大利蝗适生区在北疆及天山一带分布格局基本保持不变，但高度适生区面积都有所增加，其中在天山和阿尔泰山地区，意大利蝗中、高度适生区范围将向更高海拔区域蔓延，在北疆阿勒泰地区高度适生区明显增加。极端水分条件和水热条件对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布发挥主要作用，其中4月、10月、3月和11月降水量对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布影响最大，因其直接影响土壤相对含水量和土壤温度，从而决定意大利蝗卵的存活量。

关键词 意大利蝗；MaxEnt模型；气候变化；RCPs；气候情景；地理信息系统；预测

中图分类号： S 433.2

文献标识码：A

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.05291542.2017.03.015

Effects of future climate change on potential geographic distribution of

Calliptamus italicus （L.） in Xinjiang

Li Peixian1，2，Lin Jun3，Maidi Kuerman3，Wu Jianguo3，Liu Yongqiang1，2，Zheng Jianghua1，2

（1. College of Resource & Environment Sciences， Xinjiang University， Urumqi830046， China；

2. Key Laboratory of City Intellectualizing and Environment Modeling， Xinjiang University， Urumqi830046， China；

3. Locust and Rodent Control Headquarters of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region， Urumqi830001， China）

Abstract

Calliptamus italicus （L.） is one of the dominant species of grassland locusts in Xinjiang. It is widely distributed and has caused several serious hazards in history of Xinjiang. The predictions of its potential geographic distribution under future climate changes have important significance for its scientific prevention and treatment. Using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software with GPS data of C.italicus actual distribution and biological climate data in Xinjiang， the potential geographic distribution of C.italicus under the current climate conditions （1950-2000）were predicted， and its potential geographic distribution was also predicted using BCCCSM1.1 （Beijing Climate Center_Climate System Model version 1.1） in three periods， 2021-2040 （2030s）， 2041-2060 （2050s） and 2061-2080 （2070s）， under three climate change scenarios， namely RCP2.6， RCP4.5 and RCP8.5， which were adopted by IPCC AR5 （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report）. The results showed that Northern Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains regions were the major potential distribution regions. This distribution pattern remained unchanged in the future， but the area of highlevel suitable distribution regions increased. The moderate and highlevel suitable distribution regions of C.italicus would spread to higheraltitude area of Tianshan Mountains and Altai Mountains. A significant increase of highlevel suitable distribution region would occur in Altai region of northern Xinjiang. Extreme moisture and hydrothermal synchronization conditions were the environmental factors for the prediction. The rainfall in April， October， March and November had the greatest impact on the potential distribution of C.italicus because the direct impact on the soil relative water content and soil temperature could determine the survival situation of C.italicus eggs.

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